· Analysis updated 19:50 UTC
Gela vs AC Palermo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Gela and 0.99 for AC Palermo, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Gela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.5% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gela home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AC Palermo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 28% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Gela and 0.99 for AC Palermo, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Gela
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gelbison · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vibonese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CastrumFavara · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Reggina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nissa · 0-1 (L)
AC Palermo
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Licata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gela · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Milazzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vibonese · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Digiesse PraiaTortora · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-22T13:30:00.000Z · Gela 1-1 AC Palermo (Serie D - Girone I)
- 2025-10-19T13:30:00.000Z · Gela 0-1 AC Palermo (Serie D - Girone I)
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.