Gemert vs Meerssen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Gemert and 1.09 for Meerssen, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Gemert the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gemert win

72.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.75 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gemert home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Meerssen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gemert to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Gemert and 1.09 for Meerssen, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gemert win72%

Draw15%

Meerssen win13%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–18.8%
3–18.1%
2–08.1%
3–07.4%
1–16.4%

Recent form

Gemert

2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Achilles Veen · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Noordwijk · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Lisse · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Groene Ster · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ijsselmeervogels · 3-0 (W)

Meerssen

2026-07-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs UNA · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GOES · 4-3 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vvsb · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Derde Divisie - Sunday table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kloetinge	34	22	7	5	25	73
2	FC Lisse	34	20	8	6	34	68
3	Vvsb	34	21	5	8	33	68
4	Rijnvogels	34	19	7	8	24	64
5	Gemert	34	17	10	7	25	61
6	Roosendaal	34	15	9	10	13	54
7	TOGB	34	15	8	11	3	53
8	Zwaluwen	34	15	6	13	13	51
9	Blauw Geel	34	14	6	14	2	48
10	Noordwijk	34	12	8	14	5	44
11	UDI '19	34	11	6	17	-17	39
12	UNA	34	10	8	16	-8	38
13	GOES	34	10	7	17	-18	37
14	Groene Ster	34	10	6	18	-19	36
15	SteDoCo	34	10	4	20	-34	34
16	SVV Scheveningen	34	9	5	20	-16	32
17	Meerssen	34	8	7	19	-23	31
18	ASWH	34	6	7	21	-42	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gemert win, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.