Eryaman Stadyumu · Referee Umit Ozturk, Türkiye · Analysis updated 06:06 UTC
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.78 for Amed, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Amed the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Amed win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amed away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Amed to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.78 for Amed, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Keçiörengücü · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 1-1 (D)
Amed
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Beşiktaş · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Başakşehir · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-04T17:30:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Amed (1. Lig)
- 2024-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Amed (1. Lig)
- 2017-01-08T11:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 5-0 Amed (Türkiye Kupası)
- 2016-12-29T11:30:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 6-0 Amed (Türkiye Kupası)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Amed | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -20 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Amed win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.