Eryaman Stadyumu · Referee Umit Ozturk, Türkiye · Analysis updated 08:22 UTC
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 1.24 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Erzurumspor FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erzurumspor FK away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–010.5%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Keçiörengücü · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 1-1 (D)
Erzurumspor FK
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Samsunspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Erzurumspor FK (Süper Lig)
- 2025-02-12T11:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 Erzurumspor FK (1. Lig)
- 2024-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 Erzurumspor FK (1. Lig)
- 2024-04-21T13:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-0 Erzurumspor FK (1. Lig)
- 2023-12-03T13:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Erzurumspor FK (1. Lig)
- 2023-05-07T13:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 Erzurumspor FK (1. Lig)
- 2022-12-11T13:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Erzurumspor FK (1. Lig)
- 2022-05-08T13:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-1 Erzurumspor FK (1. Lig)
- 2021-12-14T10:30:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-2 Erzurumspor FK (1. Lig)
- 2021-04-07T13:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-1 Erzurumspor FK (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.