Eryaman Stadyumu · Referee Resat Onur Coskunses, Türkiye · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. and 2.15 for Galatasaray, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Galatasaray the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Galatasaray win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Galatasaray away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Keçiörengücü · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 1-1 (D)
Galatasaray
- 2026-10-21T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-22T17:30:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-0 Galatasaray (Türkiye Kupası)
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2025-11-22T17:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-3 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2023-02-22T00:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2-2 Galatasaray (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-05-02T17:30:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-2 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2021-01-09T16:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-6 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2020-03-01T16:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-3 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2019-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0-0 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2018-04-09T17:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
- 2017-11-03T17:00:00.000Z · Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-5 Galatasaray (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Galatasaray win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.