Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova · Analysis updated 12:34 UTC
Génesis vs Atlético Choloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Génesis and 0.66 for Atlético Choloma, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Génesis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Génesis win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Génesis home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Génesis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 30% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Génesis and 0.66 for Atlético Choloma, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 29% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.6%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–110.1%
Recent form
Génesis
- 2026-08-29T21:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Espana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 2-0 (W)
Atlético Choloma
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Independiente | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Génesis win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.