LaCantera Stadium Barabino & Partners · Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Genoa U20 vs Cesena U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Genoa U20 and 1.12 for Cesena U20, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Genoa U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Genoa U20 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cesena U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Genoa U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Genoa U20 and 1.12 for Cesena U20, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
Genoa U20
- 2026-08-23T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Internazionale U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Internazionale U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cesena U20 · 3-5 (L)
Cesena U20
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Albinoleffe U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Empoli U20 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Milan U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Hellas Verona U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale U20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Parma U20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Roma U20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Empoli U20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Lazio U20 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Bologna U20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Genoa U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hellas Verona U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Milan U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Cagliari U20 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Cesena U20 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Como U20 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Torino U20 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Lecce U20 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Monza U20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Sassuolo U20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Albinoleffe U20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina U20 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 19 | Juventus U20 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 20 | Atalanta U20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.