Stadio Luigi Ferraris · Analysis updated 12:41 UTC
Genoa vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Genoa and 2.53 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives AS Roma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AS Roma win
78.6% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 2.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Genoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Roma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.7%
- 0–311.5%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–47.3%
Recent form
Genoa
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
AS Roma
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Bratislava · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-08T17:00:00.000Z · Genoa 2-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2025-12-29T19:45:00.000Z · Genoa 1-3 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2025-01-17T19:45:00.000Z · Genoa 1-3 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2024-09-15T10:30:00.000Z · Genoa 1-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2024-05-19T18:45:00.000Z · Genoa 0-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2023-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · Genoa 4-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2023-01-12T20:00:00.000Z · Genoa 0-1 AS Roma (Coppa Italia)
- 2022-02-05T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 0-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2021-11-21T19:45:00.000Z · Genoa 0-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
- 2021-03-07T11:30:00.000Z · Genoa 0-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 4 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 9 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Roma win, at 78.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.