· Analysis updated 11:53 UTC
Genoa vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Genoa and 2.05 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Deportivo La Coruna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo La Coruna win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Genoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo La Coruna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo La Coruna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 22% / 21% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Genoa and 2.05 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Genoa
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
Deportivo La Coruna
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo La Coruna win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.