Genoa vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Genoa and 2.58 for Frosinone, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Frosinone win

77.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.70 – 2.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Genoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frosinone away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Genoa win8%

Draw14%

Frosinone win78%

Double chance 1X

22%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

92%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–212.5%
0–310.8%
0–19.7%
1–28.8%
1–37.5%

Recent form

Genoa

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)

Frosinone

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-1 Frosinone (Serie A)
2024-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-1 Frosinone (Serie A)
2023-11-26T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-2 Frosinone (Serie A)
2023-05-13T14:15:00.000Z · Genoa 2-3 Frosinone (Serie B)
2022-12-18T19:45:00.000Z · Genoa 1-0 Frosinone (Serie B)
2019-03-03T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 0-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
2018-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 2-1 Frosinone (Serie A)
2016-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 4-0 Frosinone (Serie A)
2015-11-08T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 2-2 Frosinone (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Frosinone win, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.