Stadio Luigi Ferraris · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Genoa vs Juventus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Genoa and 1.85 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Juventus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Juventus win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Genoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juventus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 18% / 22% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Genoa and 1.85 for Juventus, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.8%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–36.7%
Recent form
Genoa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Juventus
- 2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juventus win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.