Luigi Ferraris · Referee Marco Di Bello, Italy · Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Genoa vs Napoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Genoa and 1.65 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Napoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Napoli win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Genoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Napoli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Genoa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Napoli
- 2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T18:45:00.000Z · Genoa 0-2 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2026-02-07T17:00:00.000Z · Genoa 2-3 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2025-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-2 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2025-05-11T18:45:00.000Z · Genoa 2-2 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2024-12-21T17:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-2 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2024-02-17T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-1 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2023-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · Genoa 2-2 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2022-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 0-3 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2021-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · Genoa 1-2 Napoli (Serie A)
- 2021-02-06T19:45:00.000Z · Genoa 2-1 Napoli (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Napoli win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.