Stadio Luigi Ferraris · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
Genoa vs Sassuolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Genoa and 1.85 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Sassuolo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sassuolo win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Genoa home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sassuolo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–27.5%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Genoa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Sassuolo
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Monza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bologna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T10:30:00.000Z · Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2025-11-03T17:30:00.000Z · Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2024-05-12T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2023-12-22T17:30:00.000Z · Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2022-01-06T15:30:00.000Z · Genoa 1-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2021-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · Genoa 2-2 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2021-05-09T10:30:00.000Z · Genoa 1-2 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2021-01-06T14:00:00.000Z · Genoa 1-2 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2020-07-29T17:30:00.000Z · Genoa 0-5 Sassuolo (Serie A)
- 2020-01-05T17:00:00.000Z · Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sassuolo win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.