Gent vs Aarhus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Gent and 1.14 for Aarhus, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Gent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Gent win

54.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.14

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gent home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aarhus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Gent and 1.14 for Aarhus, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gent win54%

Draw23%

Aarhus win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.6%
2–19.8%
1–09.3%
2–08.6%
3–16.1%

Recent form

Gent

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven · 1-0 (W)

Aarhus

2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjold Sæby · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Nordsjaelland · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Silkeborg · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gent win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.