Planet Group Arena · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Gent vs Anderlecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Gent and 0.60 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Gent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Gent win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gent home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Anderlecht away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 28% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Gent and 0.60 for Anderlecht, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.1%
- 0–013.9%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–18.3%
Recent form
Gent
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven · 1-0 (W)
Anderlecht
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Genk · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gent win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.