Gent vs Hibernian Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Gent and 0.95 for Hibernian, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Gent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.95 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gent home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hibernian away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 34% / 32% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Gent and 0.95 for Hibernian, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Gent win34%

Draw32%

Hibernian win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–015.0%
0–114.2%
1–014.2%
1–113.5%
0–26.7%

Recent form

Gent

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven · 1-0 (W)

Hibernian

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-27T19:00:00.000Z · Gent 3-2 Hibernian (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-20T18:30:00.000Z · Gent 0-0 Hibernian (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.