Belgium · Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 318:30
GentW

18:30 UTC

Thursday, 3 September 2026

Planet Group Arena · Analysis updated 01:34 UTC

Gent vs OH Leuven Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Gent and 1.03 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Gent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws roughly 33% of the time.

Model pick

Gent to Win

67.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.38 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Gent win67%
Draw18%
OH Leuven win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams to score58%

Correct score

  • 2–19.6%
  • 2–09.4%
  • 1–18.1%
  • 1–07.9%
  • 3–17.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Gent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 2.38 goals for Gent and 1.03 for OH Leuven, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 58%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

  • Model confidence

    Gent to Win is the headline pick at 67% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Gent

    OH Leuven

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Jupiler Pro League table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Club Brugge KV220066
      2Antwerp220046
      3Union St. Gilloise211044
      4Zulte Waregem211014
      5Charleroi110023
      6Gent110023
      7Anderlecht110013
      8Genk210103
      9Cercle Brugge202002
      10St. Truiden202002
      11Standard Liege101001
      12Lommel United101001
      13SK Beveren1001-10
      14RAAL La Louvière1001-10
      15KV Mechelen1001-20
      16KVC Westerlo2002-50
      17OH Leuven2002-50
      18Kortrijk2002-60

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.