Mikheil Meskhi Stadium · Referee D. Nicolson · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Georgia vs Bahrain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Georgia and 1.07 for Bahrain, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Georgia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Georgia win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Georgia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Georgia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Georgia and 1.07 for Bahrain, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Georgia
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Northern Ireland · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Romania · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lithuania · 2-0 (W)
Bahrain
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Georgia · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudan · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-12-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Algeria · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-12-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Iraq · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Djibouti · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Georgia win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.