Sportplatz Gerasdorf · Analysis updated 16:32 UTC
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf vs Stadlau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Gerasdorf Stammersdorf and 0.98 for Stadlau, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Gerasdorf Stammersdorf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Stadlau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gerasdorf Stammersdorf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Gerasdorf Stammersdorf and 0.98 for Stadlau, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf
Stadlau
- 2026-06-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Helfort · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs LAC-Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Simmeringer SC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Schwechat · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria XIII · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Landesliga - Wien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wienerberg | 28 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 54 | 70 |
| 2 | Dinamo Helfort | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | LAC-Inter | 28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 53 |
| 4 | 1980 Wien | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
| 5 | Red Star Penzing | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 43 |
| 6 | First Vienna II | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 42 |
| 7 | Austria XIII | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 38 |
| 8 | Gerasdorf Stammersdorf | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -7 | 33 |
| 9 | Vorwärts Brigittenau | 27 | 9 | 3 | 15 | -34 | 30 |
| 10 | Schwechat | 27 | 9 | 2 | 16 | -4 | 29 |
| 11 | Hellas Kagran | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -19 | 29 |
| 12 | Slovan HAC | 26 | 8 | 3 | 15 | -10 | 27 |
| 13 | FAC Wien | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -7 | 26 |
| 14 | Simmeringer SC | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -33 | 21 |
| 15 | Stadlau | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -19 | 19 |
| 16 | Mauerwerk | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gerasdorf Stammersdorf win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.