Germania Egestorf vs Spelle-Venhaus Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Germania Egestorf and 2.35 for Spelle-Venhaus, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Spelle-Venhaus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Spelle-Venhaus win

70.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.85 – 2.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Germania Egestorf home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Spelle-Venhaus away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spelle-Venhaus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 12% / 17% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Germania Egestorf and 2.35 for Spelle-Venhaus, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Germania Egestorf win12%

Draw17%

Spelle-Venhaus win71%

Double chance 1X

29%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

88%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

0–211.3%
0–19.6%
1–29.6%
0–38.8%
1–18.1%

Recent form

Germania Egestorf

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordhorn · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Spelle-Venhaus · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bersenbrück · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Meppen II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 1-8 (L)

Spelle-Venhaus

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Germania Egestorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Heeslinger SC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niedersachsen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	11	7	2	2	16	23
2	Heeslinger SC	11	6	4	1	17	22
3	Wilhelmshaven	10	6	3	1	13	21
4	Spelle-Venhaus	10	6	3	1	11	21
5	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	6	3	1	10	21
6	Borussia Hildesheim	10	6	2	2	7	20
7	BW Lohne	10	5	2	3	6	17
8	Bersenbrück	10	5	1	4	4	16
9	Meppen II	11	5	1	5	-2	16
10	Nordhorn	11	3	3	5	-13	12
11	Verden 04	11	2	4	5	-3	10
12	Germania Egestorf	10	2	3	5	-9	9
13	Hemmingen	10	2	1	7	-19	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	0	6	4	-5	6
15	Vorsfelde	11	1	2	8	-19	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	10	1	0	9	-14	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spelle-Venhaus win, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.