· Analysis updated 10:53 UTC
Germania Halberstadt vs SC Freital Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Germania Halberstadt and 1.38 for SC Freital, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Germania Halberstadt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Germania Halberstadt win
66.7% probability
Expected goals
2.78 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Germania Halberstadt home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Freital away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Germania Halberstadt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Germania Halberstadt and 1.38 for SC Freital, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.7%
- 2–06.0%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–25.7%
Recent form
Germania Halberstadt
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Plauen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Halle · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Frankfurt · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs ZFC Meuselwitz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Sandersdorf · 3-1 (W)
SC Freital
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Weissenfels · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Krieschow · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Empor Glauchau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Einheit Wernigerode · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Auerbach · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ZFC Meuselwitz | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Auerbach | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Germania Halberstadt | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 19 |
| 4 | VfL Halle | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Eilenburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Dresden II | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | Plauen | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | SC Freital | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Weissenfels | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Union Sandersdorf | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Empor Glauchau | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Budissa Bautzen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 13 | Einheit Wernigerode | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -9 | 8 |
| 14 | Krieschow | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | Einheit Rudolstadt | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
| 16 | FC Frankfurt | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -22 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Germania Halberstadt win, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.