Estadio El Fortin · Analysis updated 20:21 UTC
Germinal de Rawson vs Guillermo Brown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Germinal de Rawson and 0.65 for Guillermo Brown, a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives Germinal de Rawson the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
77.1% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Germinal de Rawson home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guillermo Brown away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Germinal de Rawson to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 33% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Germinal de Rawson and 0.65 for Guillermo Brown, a combined 1.67 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.2%
- 0–018.7%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–112.2%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Germinal de Rawson
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
Guillermo Brown
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Germinal de Rawson · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.