Estadio El Fortin · Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Germinal de Rawson vs Juventud Unida Univ. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Germinal de Rawson and 0.73 for Juventud Unida Univ., a combined total of 1.23. That distribution gives Juventud Unida Univ. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 13% for over 2.5 goals and 20% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 29%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Germinal de Rawson home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Juventud Unida Univ. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 22% / 41% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Germinal de Rawson and 0.73 for Juventud Unida Univ., a combined 1.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–029.4%
- 0–121.3%
- 1–014.7%
- 1–110.6%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Germinal de Rawson
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
Juventud Unida Univ.
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 20% and over 2.5 goals at 13%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.