Estadio El Fortin · Analysis updated 01:24 UTC
Germinal de Rawson vs Santamarina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Germinal de Rawson and 0.59 for Santamarina, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Germinal de Rawson the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Germinal de Rawson win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Germinal de Rawson home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Santamarina away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Germinal de Rawson to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 30% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Germinal de Rawson and 0.59 for Santamarina, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.8%
- 0–015.7%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 45.1% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 52.4% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.7% | 29.8% | 3.36 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.09 | 82.7% | 82.6% | 1.21 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.8% | 17.4% | 5.75 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 72.2% | 70.2% | 1.42 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Germinal de Rawson
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
Santamarina
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Germinal de Rawson win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.