Gernika vs Bergantiños Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Gernika and 1.48 for Bergantiños, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Gernika the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gernika win

46.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gernika home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bergantiños away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gernika to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Gernika and 1.48 for Bergantiños, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gernika win46%

Draw23%

Bergantiños win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.8%
2–19.1%
1–27.3%
2–26.7%
1–06.6%

Recent form

Gernika

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanera · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergantiños · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés II · 0-0 (D)

Bergantiños

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Coruxo · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Portugalete · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Santa Marta · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gernika win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.