Gernika vs Llanera Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.52 expected goals for Gernika and 1.13 for Llanera, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Gernika the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gernika win

67.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.52 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gernika home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llanera away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gernika to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.52 goals for Gernika and 1.13 for Llanera, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gernika win68%

Draw17%

Llanera win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.3%
2–08.3%
3–17.8%
1–17.4%
3–06.9%

Recent form

Gernika

2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Llanera · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergantiños · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés II · 0-0 (D)

Llanera

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Basconia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gernika · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gernika win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.