Getafe vs Celta Vigo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Getafe and 0.80 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Getafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Getafe home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celta Vigo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 33% / 35% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Getafe and 0.80 for Celta Vigo, a combined 1.63 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Getafe win33%

Draw35%

Celta Vigo win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

65%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals48%

Over 2.5 goals22%

Over 3.5 goals8%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

0–019.7%
1–016.2%
0–115.8%
1–113.0%
2–06.7%

Recent form

Getafe

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)

Celta Vigo

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.