Getafe vs Espanyol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Getafe and 0.95 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Getafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Getafe home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Espanyol away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Getafe win40%

Draw30%

Espanyol win31%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–014.1%
1–113.4%
0–012.6%
0–111.9%
2–07.9%

Recent form

Getafe

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)

Espanyol

2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Elche · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Osasuna · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-21T15:15:00.000Z · Getafe 2-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2025-12-13T20:00:00.000Z · Getafe 0-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2025-04-18T19:00:00.000Z · Getafe 0-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2024-12-09T20:00:00.000Z · Getafe 1-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2024-01-06T16:00:00.000Z · Getafe 1-0 Espanyol (Copa del Rey)
2023-04-30T16:30:00.000Z · Getafe 0-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2023-01-15T13:00:00.000Z · Getafe 1-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
2022-03-05T15:15:00.000Z · Getafe 0-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
2021-10-31T17:30:00.000Z · Getafe 2-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2020-06-16T17:30:00.000Z · Getafe 0-0 Espanyol (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.