World · UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round19:00

3 – 1

Thursday, 20 August 2026

Coliseum · Referee A. Treimanis · Analysis updated 20:36 UTC

Getafe vs FK Partizan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Getafe and 0.59 for FK Partizan, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Getafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Getafe win

70.0% probability

High confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.96 – 0.59

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Getafe home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Partizan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Getafe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 20% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Getafe and 0.59 for FK Partizan, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Getafe win70%

Draw20%

FK Partizan win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–015.3%
2–015.0%
3–09.8%
1–19.0%
2–18.8%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Match result	Away	10.50	8.9%	10.2%	9.80	+1.3
Goals	Under 3.5	1.28	73.8%	74.7%	1.34	+0.9
Both teams to score	No	1.50	61.3%	61.7%	1.62	+0.4
Double chance	Home/Away	1.18	79.9%	80.2%	1.25	+0.3
Match result	Home	1.34	69.8%	70.0%	1.43	+0.2
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.05	89.7%	89.8%	1.11	+0.1
Goals	Over 2.5	2.00	46.9%	46.9%	2.13	-0.0
Goals	Under 2.5	1.77	53.1%	53.1%	1.88	0.0
Both teams to score	Yes	2.38	38.7%	38.3%	2.61	-0.4
Double chance	Draw/Away	3.10	30.4%	30.0%	3.33	-0.4
Goals	Over 3.5	3.60	26.2%	25.3%	3.95	-0.9
Match result	Draw	4.40	21.3%	19.8%	5.05	-1.5

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Getafe

2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)

FK Partizan

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Surdulica · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs OFK Beograd · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Getafe win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.