Coliseum · Referee J. Alberola · Analysis updated 14:11 UTC
Getafe vs Malaga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Getafe and 0.70 for Malaga, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Getafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Getafe win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Getafe home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malaga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.1%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 65.6% vs market 55.7%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 65.6% | 1.52 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.1% | 77.7% | 1.29 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 22.2% | 22.4% | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 31.1% | 31.2% | 3.21 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.7% | 53.6% | 1.87 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.00 | 46.7% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 68.9% | 1.45 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 34.4% | 2.91 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Getafe
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
Malaga
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2018-05-19T16:30:00.000Z · Getafe 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2018-01-12T20:00:00.000Z · Getafe 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2016-02-05T19:30:00.000Z · Getafe 0-3 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2015-09-18T18:30:00.000Z · Getafe 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2015-02-28T21:00:00.000Z · Getafe 2-3 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2014-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · Getafe 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2014-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Getafe 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2013-12-14T21:00:00.000Z · Getafe 0-1 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2013-04-28T15:00:00.000Z · Getafe 1-2 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2012-12-01T15:00:00.000Z · Getafe 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Getafe win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.