· Analysis updated 15:21 UTC
Geumsan Insam vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Geumsan Insam and 1.50 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Jungnang Chorus Mustang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.7% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Geumsan Insam home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Jungnang Chorus Mustang away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jungnang Chorus Mustang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Geumsan Insam and 1.50 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Geumsan Insam
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Jinju Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Seosan Pioneer · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-11T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Changwon City · 0-3 (L)
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sejong SA · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Namyangju · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Geumsan Insam · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijang United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-05T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Namyangju · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K4 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 51 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Namyangju | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 39 |
| 4 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 5 | Geumsan Insam | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Geoje Citizen | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 34 |
| 7 | Jecheon Citizen | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | -3 | 31 |
| 8 | Pyeongchang United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Sejong SA | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -14 | 29 |
| 10 | Gijang United | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Haman | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -15 | 20 |
| 12 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 14 |
| 13 | Seosan Pioneer | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -24 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.