Gévora vs Atlético Pueblonuevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.39 expected goals for Gévora and 1.18 for Atlético Pueblonuevo, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Gévora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Gévora win

64.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.39 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gévora home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Pueblonuevo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gévora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.39 goals for Gévora and 1.18 for Atlético Pueblonuevo, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gévora win64%

Draw19%

Atlético Pueblonuevo win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.5%
2–08.1%
1–17.9%
3–17.6%
1–06.7%

Recent form

Gévora

2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintana · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Plasencia · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Castuera · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-3 (L)

Atlético Pueblonuevo

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Azuaga · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Gévora · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Calamonte · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Puebla Calzada · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraíz · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T16:30:00.000Z · Gévora 1-1 Atlético Pueblonuevo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
2026-01-04T11:00:00.000Z · Gévora 1-1 Atlético Pueblonuevo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Azuaga	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Moralo	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Llerenense	5	4	1	0	4	13
4	Castuera	5	4	0	1	10	12
5	Villanovense	6	3	1	2	3	10
6	Puebla Calzada	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	CD Zafra	5	2	2	1	2	8
8	Gévora	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Jerez	5	2	1	2	1	7
10	Montijo	6	2	1	3	-2	7
11	Santa Amalia	5	1	3	1	1	6
12	Cabeza Buey	6	1	3	2	0	6
13	Villafranca	5	2	0	3	-1	6
14	Jaraíz	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Quintana	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Atlético Pueblonuevo	6	0	3	3	-10	3
17	Plasencia	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Guadiana	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Gévora win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.