· Analysis updated 02:41 UTC
Gévora vs Atlético Pueblonuevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Gévora and 1.73 for Atlético Pueblonuevo, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Gévora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gévora win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gévora home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Pueblonuevo away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gévora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 19% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Gévora and 1.73 for Atlético Pueblonuevo, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–16.4%
- 3–25.6%
Recent form
Gévora
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Montijo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villafranca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Llerenense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Moralo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 3-1 (W)
Atlético Pueblonuevo
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Plasencia · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Castuera · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Puebla Calzada · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Gévora · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T16:30:00.000Z · Gévora 1-1 Atlético Pueblonuevo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2026-01-04T11:00:00.000Z · Gévora 1-1 Atlético Pueblonuevo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Llerenense | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Moralo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Villanovense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Castuera | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Gévora | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Jerez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Cabeza Buey | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Villafranca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | CD Zafra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Quintana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Jaraíz | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Santa Amalia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Montijo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Plasencia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gévora win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.