· Analysis updated 17:39 UTC
Gévora vs Llerenense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Gévora and 1.30 for Llerenense, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Llerenense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Llerenense win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gévora home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Llerenense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Llerenense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 26% / 28% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Gévora and 1.30 for Llerenense, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Gévora
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Plasencia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Castuera · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cacereño · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Badajoz · 0-3 (L)
Llerenense
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gévora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Zafra · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaraíz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Villanovense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Guadiana · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Llerenense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Villanovense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Gévora | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Jerez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Montijo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Santa Amalia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Cabeza Buey | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Villafranca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Jaraíz | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Quintana | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Llerenense win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.