Tampines Stadium · Referee M. Hilmi Bin Mohammad Fuad · Analysis updated 07:55 UTC
Geylang International vs Tanjong Pagar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.49 expected goals for Geylang International and 1.04 for Tanjong Pagar, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Geylang International the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Geylang International win
68.9% probability
Expected goals
2.49 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Geylang International home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tanjong Pagar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.0%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–07.5%
Recent form
Geylang International
- 2026-05-15T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Balestier Khalsa · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Young Lions · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-02T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Balestier Khalsa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Home United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T12:20:00.000Z · H vs Tanjong Pagar · 2-1 (W)
Tanjong Pagar
- 2026-10-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tampines Rovers · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Balestier Khalsa · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Geylang International · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hougang United · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T12:20:00.000Z · Geylang International 2-1 Tanjong Pagar (Premier League)
- 2026-02-06T11:30:00.000Z · Geylang International 3-1 Tanjong Pagar (Premier League)
- 2025-12-06T11:30:00.000Z · Geylang International 4-1 Tanjong Pagar (Cup)
- 2025-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · Geylang International 2-1 Tanjong Pagar (Premier League)
- 2025-05-25T10:00:00.000Z · Geylang International 3-3 Tanjong Pagar (Premier League)
- 2025-03-15T12:30:00.000Z · Geylang International 0-1 Tanjong Pagar (Cup)
- 2025-02-27T11:45:00.000Z · Geylang International 5-0 Tanjong Pagar (Premier League)
- 2024-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · Geylang International 7-2 Tanjong Pagar (Premier League)
- 2024-07-19T11:45:00.000Z · Geylang International 5-3 Tanjong Pagar (Premier League)
- 2023-07-15T10:00:00.000Z · Geylang International 2-2 Tanjong Pagar (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geylang International | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Tampines Rovers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Home United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | Albirex Niigata S | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tanjong Pagar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hougang United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Geylang International win, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.