· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
GFA vs Yadanarbon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for GFA and 1.84 for Yadanarbon, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Yadanarbon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Yadanarbon win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Yadanarbon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yadanarbon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for GFA and 1.84 for Yadanarbon, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.7%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
GFA
Yadanarbon
- 2026-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ayeyawady United · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hantharwady United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Myawady · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangon Royals · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T09:00:00.000Z · A vs GFA · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dagon | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Yangon Royals | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Yadanarbon | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Shan United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 5 | Yangon United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Thitsar Arman | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | GFA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | I.S.P.E | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Hantharwady United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Sagaing United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 11 | Ayeyawady United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Myawady | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Yadanarbon win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.