Kirkuk Olympic Stadium · Analysis updated 22:36 UTC
Ghaz Al Shamal vs Al-Jolan SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ghaz Al Shamal and 1.08 for Al-Jolan SC, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Ghaz Al Shamal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ghaz Al Shamal home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Jolan SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ghaz Al Shamal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Ghaz Al Shamal and 1.08 for Al-Jolan SC, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–012.5%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–27.2%
Recent form
Ghaz Al Shamal
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Minaa Basra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Newroz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shorta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Duhok · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jolan SC · 0-1 (L)
Al-Jolan SC
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Kahrabaa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Duhok · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gharraf · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Talaba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Newroz · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Naft | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Al Shorta | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Erbil | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Zawra'a | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Duhok | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Minaa Basra | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Talaba | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Diyala | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Mosul | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Zakho | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.