El-Gazel Stadium · Analysis updated 08:38 UTC
Ghazl El Mehalla vs El Mokawloon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.34 for El Mokawloon, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives El Mokawloon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
El Mokawloon win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ghazl El Mehalla home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
El Mokawloon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.7%
- 0–014.0%
- 0–212.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.8%
Recent form
Ghazl El Mehalla
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enppi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Haras El Hodood · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 0-0 (D)
El Mokawloon
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wadi Degla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahly · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Gouna FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AL Masry · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Geish · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2026-01-05T14:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 El Mokawloon (League Cup)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2023-02-10T16:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-3 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2022-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2022-07-22T16:30:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-1 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2022-02-15T13:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2021-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-2 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
- 2021-03-14T13:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-0 El Mokawloon (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Future FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Masr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Wadi Degla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is El Mokawloon win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.