El-Gazel Stadium · Referee A. Nagy · Analysis updated 06:27 UTC
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Haras El Hodood Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 0.63 for Haras El Hodood, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Ghazl El Mehalla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.5% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ghazl El Mehalla home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Haras El Hodood away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ghazl El Mehalla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 36% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 0.63 for Haras El Hodood, a combined 1.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 1–019.5%
- 0–113.9%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
Ghazl El Mehalla
- 2026-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Smouha SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Abu Qair Semad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamalek SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs National Bank of Egypt · 1-3 (L)
Haras El Hodood
- 2026-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Proxy · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs La Viena FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs El Seka El Hadid · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Tanta SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dayrout · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.