El-Gazel Stadium · Referee T. Magdy · Analysis updated 12:08 UTC
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Ismaily SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.18 for Ismaily SC, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Ghazl El Mehalla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ghazl El Mehalla home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ismaily SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ghazl El Mehalla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.18 for Ismaily SC, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Ghazl El Mehalla
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enppi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Haras El Hodood · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 0-0 (D)
Ismaily SC
- 2026-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs La Viena FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T12:30:00.000Z · A vs El Seka El Hadid · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Tanta SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dayrout · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mega Sport · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.