Ghazl El Mehalla vs Petrojet Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.23 for Petrojet, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Petrojet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ghazl El Mehalla home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Petrojet away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ghazl El Mehalla win32%

Draw28%

Petrojet win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.2%
0–112.6%
1–010.8%
0–010.3%
1–28.1%

Recent form

Ghazl El Mehalla

2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enppi · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Haras El Hodood · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 0-0 (D)

Petrojet

2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wadi Degla · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Gouna FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AL Masry · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Zamalek SC · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs El Geish · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-23T18:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
2025-09-22T17:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-0 Petrojet (Premier League)
2025-03-05T19:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-2 Petrojet (Premier League)
2024-03-06T13:30:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 2-2 Petrojet (Second League)
2024-01-15T12:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 Petrojet (Second League)
2016-05-24T15:45:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 Petrojet (Premier League)
2016-01-09T12:30:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-2 Petrojet (Premier League)
2011-11-03T14:45:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 2-2 Petrojet (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pyramids FC	7	7	0	0	14	21
2	Al Ahly	7	5	2	0	8	17
3	Zamalek SC	7	5	1	1	6	16
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	7	5	0	2	6	15
5	Future FC	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Al Ittihad	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	El Mokawloon	7	3	2	2	4	11
8	Masr	7	3	2	2	0	11
9	National Bank of Egypt	7	3	1	3	0	10
10	Smouha SC	7	3	1	3	0	10
11	Olympic El Qanah	7	1	5	1	0	8
12	Petrojet	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	AL Masry	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Wadi Degla	7	1	4	2	-1	7
15	El Geish	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Asyut Petrol	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Enppi	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	Ghazl El Mehalla	7	1	1	5	-8	4
19	Abu Qair Semad	7	1	1	5	-8	4
20	El Gouna FC	7	0	2	5	-6	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.