El-Gazel Stadium · Referee M. Bassiouny · Analysis updated 12:10 UTC
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Zamalek SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.52 expected goals for Ghazl El Mehalla and 1.37 for Zamalek SC, a combined total of 1.89. That distribution gives Zamalek SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zamalek SC win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
0.52 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ghazl El Mehalla home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zamalek SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.7%
- 0–015.2%
- 0–214.1%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–07.9%
Recent form
Ghazl El Mehalla
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enppi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Haras El Hodood · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Future FC · 0-0 (D)
Zamalek SC
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs APR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Asyut Petrol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs APR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahly · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Masr · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 1-1 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
- 2024-12-02T18:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-4 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
- 2023-06-27T17:30:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-2 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
- 2023-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 2-1 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
- 2022-07-16T16:30:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-2 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
- 2022-01-22T15:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 3-0 Zamalek SC (League Cup)
- 2021-12-25T18:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-4 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
- 2021-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-3 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
- 2021-02-02T15:00:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 2-1 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
- 2016-05-07T15:45:00.000Z · Ghazl El Mehalla 0-2 Zamalek SC (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zamalek SC win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.