· Analysis updated 14:07 UTC
Gheorgheni vs ASA Targu Mures Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Gheorgheni and 1.49 for ASA Targu Mures, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Gheorgheni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gheorgheni home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ASA Targu Mures away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gheorgheni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Gheorgheni and 1.49 for ASA Targu Mures, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Gheorgheni
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacău II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs USV Iaşi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Viitorul Onesti · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Târgu Secuiesc · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paşcani · 4-2 (W)
ASA Targu Mures
- 2026-09-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Dinamo București · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Afumati · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.