· Analysis updated 20:50 UTC
Gheorgheni vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gheorgheni and 0.88 for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Gheorgheni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gheorgheni win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gheorgheni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gheorgheni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Gheorgheni and 0.88 for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–011.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Gheorgheni
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Adjud · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacău II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs USV Iaşi · 0-2 (L)
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSM Adjud · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aerostar Bacau · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacău II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Odorheiu Secuiesc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs USV Iaşi · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM FC Vaslui | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 2 | Târgu Secuiesc | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | CSM Adjud | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | USV Iaşi | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bradul Putna | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | Aerostar Bacau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Odorheiu Secuiesc | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Bacău II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Gheorgheni | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Viitorul Onesti | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -16 | 4 |
| 12 | Paşcani | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gheorgheni win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.