Stadio Comunale Carraia · Analysis updated 17:56 UTC
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Prato Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano and 1.64 for Prato, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Prato the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Prato win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Prato to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 18% / 25% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano and 1.64 for Prato, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.4%
- 0–211.8%
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Grosseto · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Seravezza · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 0-1 (L)
Prato
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Lucchese | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Seravezza | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Robur Siena | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau Altopascio | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Flaminia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Ternana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Terranuova Traiana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Mezzolara | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Rondinella | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | Montevarchi Calcio | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Grassina | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 17 | Progresso | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Prato win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.