Stadio Comunale Carraia · Analysis updated 00:04 UTC
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Sansepolcro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano and 0.99 for Sansepolcro, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sansepolcro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano and 0.99 for Sansepolcro, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.2%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–08.1%
Recent form
Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Grosseto · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Seravezza · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 0-1 (L)
Sansepolcro
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Camaiore · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Orvietana Calcio · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Trestina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Grosseto · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Gavorrano | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Robur Siena | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Tau Altopascio | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | Seravezza | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Ternana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Scandicci | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Lucchese | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Terranuova Traiana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Montevarchi Calcio | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Flaminia | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Mezzolara | 9 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi Zola | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Grassina | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Progresso | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.