Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano vs Seravezza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano and 1.08 for Seravezza, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Seravezza away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano and 1.08 for Seravezza, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano win41%

Draw28%

Seravezza win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–012.2%
0–110.3%
0–09.5%
2–18.3%

Recent form

Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano

2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Livorno · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Grosseto · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Montevarchi Calcio · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Seravezza · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs San Donato Tavarnelle · 0-1 (L)

Seravezza

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flaminia · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lucchese · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Robur Siena · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Terranuova Traiana · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresso · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone E table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Prato	7	5	2	0	7	17
2	Gavorrano	7	4	3	0	6	15
3	Lucchese	7	4	2	1	5	14
4	Seravezza	7	4	1	2	10	13
5	Robur Siena	7	4	1	2	6	13
6	Tau Altopascio	7	4	1	2	-2	13
7	Scandicci	7	3	3	1	5	12
8	Flaminia	7	3	2	2	-1	11
9	Ternana	7	2	3	2	4	9
10	Terranuova Traiana	7	2	3	2	2	9
11	San Donato Tavarnelle	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Mezzolara	7	1	5	1	-2	8
13	Rondinella	7	2	2	3	-4	8
14	Montevarchi Calcio	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Sasso Marconi Zola	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Grassina	7	0	3	4	-7	3
17	Progresso	7	1	0	6	-12	3
18	Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano	7	0	2	5	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.