Giana Erminio vs Cittadella Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Giana Erminio and 1.45 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Cittadella the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Cittadella win

54.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Giana Erminio home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cittadella away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cittadella to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 19% / 27% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Giana Erminio and 1.45 for Cittadella, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Giana Erminio win19%

Draw27%

Cittadella win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

0–116.1%
1–112.0%
0–211.7%
0–011.1%
1–28.7%

Recent form

Giana Erminio

2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 1-1 (D)

Cittadella

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Brescia · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arzignano Valchiampo · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Novara · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
3	Trento	10	5	5	0	10	20
4	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
5	Ospitaletto	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Arzignano Valchiampo	10	5	2	3	3	17
7	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
8	Pergolettese	10	3	5	2	0	14
9	Lecco	10	3	4	3	3	13
10	Albinoleffe	10	3	4	3	1	13
11	Desenzano Calvina	10	3	4	3	-2	13
12	Lumezzane	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Novara	10	2	4	4	-4	10
15	Juventus U23	10	2	4	4	-6	10
16	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	PRO Vercelli	10	2	3	5	-10	9
18	Giana Erminio	10	1	5	4	-3	8
19	Folgore Caratese	10	1	3	6	-6	6
20	Renate	10	0	4	6	-7	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cittadella win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.