Stadio Citta di Gorgonzola · Referee L. Maccarini · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Giana Erminio vs PRO Vercelli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Giana Erminio and 1.12 for PRO Vercelli, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Giana Erminio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Giana Erminio home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
PRO Vercelli away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–08.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 71.7% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.1% | 29.6% | 3.38 | +1.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 73.2% | 74.7% | 1.34 | +1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.0% | 51.2% | 1.95 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 53.1% | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.8% | 44.1% | 2.27 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 46.9% | 2.13 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 56.6% | 55.9% | 1.79 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.83 | 50.0% | 48.8% | 2.05 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.28 | 71.7% | 70.4% | 1.42 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.50 | 26.8% | 25.3% | 3.95 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 28.1% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Giana Erminio
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Trento · 2-2 (D)
PRO Vercelli
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Carpi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcione · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-27T19:30:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 1-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-10-19T15:30:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 0-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2025-01-11T14:00:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 1-2 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2024-11-27T17:00:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 3-0 PRO Vercelli (Coppa Italia Serie C)
- 2024-09-08T16:30:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 1-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2024-05-07T18:30:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 3-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs)
- 2024-02-17T17:30:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 3-0 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2023-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 2-3 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2022-02-27T16:30:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 1-1 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
- 2021-10-21T15:30:00.000Z · Giana Erminio 1-2 PRO Vercelli (Serie C - Girone A)
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 24 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Trento | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Treviso | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Desenzano Calvina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Albinoleffe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alcione | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Lumezzane | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Pergolettese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Lecco | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Novara | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | PRO Vercelli | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Juventus U23 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 | Athletic Carpi | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Folgore Caratese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 20 | Renate | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.