Giana Erminio vs Union Brescia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Giana Erminio and 1.38 for Union Brescia, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Union Brescia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Union Brescia win

49.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.83 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Giana Erminio home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union Brescia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Union Brescia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 23% / 28% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Giana Erminio and 1.38 for Union Brescia, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Giana Erminio win23%

Draw28%

Union Brescia win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

0–115.2%
1–112.6%
0–011.1%
0–210.5%
1–09.1%

Recent form

Giana Erminio

2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Brescia · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Renate · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 1-1 (D)

Union Brescia

2026-10-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cittadella · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Giana Erminio · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs PRO Vercelli · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Lecco · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie C - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cittadella	11	9	0	2	12	27
2	Trento	11	6	5	0	11	23
3	Union Brescia	11	6	4	1	10	22
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Treviso	11	5	4	2	4	19
6	Ospitaletto	11	5	3	3	7	18
7	Pergolettese	11	4	5	2	1	17
8	Alcione	11	3	6	2	1	15
9	Lecco	11	3	5	3	3	14
10	Albinoleffe	11	3	5	3	1	14
11	Desenzano Calvina	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Lumezzane	11	3	3	5	-4	12
13	Athletic Carpi	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	PRO Vercelli	11	3	3	5	-9	12
15	Giana Erminio	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Novara	11	2	4	5	-6	10
17	Dolomiti Bellunesi	11	2	4	5	-6	10
18	Juventus U23	11	2	4	5	-7	10
19	Folgore Caratese	11	1	4	6	-6	7
20	Renate	11	0	5	6	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Union Brescia win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.